Vikram Mittal of Forbes reports that Russia’s hypersonic missiles have underwhelmed in the war with Ukraine. Mittal writes:
In 2020, hypersonic weapons were hailed as a game-changing technology, combining the high speed of ballistic missiles with the maneuverability of cruise missiles to evade air-defense systems. Russia and China pioneered this technology, with many nations following suit and launching their own hypersonic and counter-hypersonic programs. Since invading Ukraine in 2022, Russia has operationally used its hypersonic weapons in strikes against key Ukrainian targets. However, the small number of these weapons deployed, coupled with successful Ukrainian interceptions, has prevented hypersonic weapons from playing a significant role in the conflict. Regardless, their usage offers useful insights into their capabilities, limitations, and future applications.
Russia’s hypersonic arsenal includes the Kinzhal and the Avangard missiles. The Kinzhal has been deployed multiple times against targets in Ukraine. Launched from a MiG-31K or Tu-22M3 aircraft at Mach 2.7, the Kinzhal uses rocket propulsion to reach a top speed of Mach 10. Many experts view the Kinzhal as a modified variant of the Iskander missile, a ground-launched system that has been in the Russian arsenals for decades. Russia’s other hypersonic weapon, the Avangard, is a hypersonic glide vehicle designed for nuclear warhead delivery; it has not been used operationally. […]
The first operational deployment of the Kinzhal occurred on March 18, 2022, against an underground weapons depot in western Ukraine. Their use peaked in March 2023, when Russia launched six Kinzhal missiles in a single strike. Two months later, on May 4, 2023, Ukraine intercepted a Kinzhal for the first time using a U.S.-supplied Patriot air-defense system. Twelve days later, Ukraine reported intercepting six Kinzhal missiles using the Patriot. There have since been numerous reports of Kinzhal missile launches, some of which successfully reached their targets, while others were intercepted by the Patriot air-defense system. […]
Looking ahead, future conflicts will see greater deployment of hypersonic weapons, especially if stockpiles can be established in advance. However, as seen in Ukraine, current hypersonic missiles are vulnerable to conventional air-defense systems. […]
Russia has incorporated the Kinzhal into its strategy to target critical infrastructure, military installations, and high-value assets deep within Ukraine. These strikes combine the hypersonic weapon with conventional missiles and loitering munitions to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. While similarities between the Kinzhal and the Iskander create uncertainty about the exact number of Kinzhal missiles fired, it is well established that only a small fraction of the thousands of missiles launched by Russia are hypersonic.
Russia’s use of hypersonic weapons against Ukrainian targets has not met expectations. The limited number of available missiles, combined with Ukraine’s ability to intercept some of them, has hindered these weapons from delivering an impactful advantage for Russia. These issues will likely be addressed in the future through expanded stockpiles and advancements in technology, allowing hypersonic weapons to play a more significant role in future conflicts.
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