Blindsiding Putin’s Vast Security State

Director of FSB Alexander Bortnikov speaking to President Vladimir Putin of Russia. 21 December 2017 SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU

Russia Was Warned:

The Russian Security State employs almost one million policemen, 340,000 national guards, and over 100,000 spies. That “apparatus has proved ruthlessly efficient in terrorizing babushkas bringing flowers to Alexei Navalny’s grave, tracking down lone bloggers and persecuting homosexuals,” coitizes Owen Matthews in The Spectator:

But as the Crocus attack demonstrated, the Kremlin’s securocrats are utterly incompetent at doing their actual job, which is to protect the lives of Russian citizens. Rather than keep a relentless watch for emerging threats from all over the region, Putin’s security chiefs have instead focused on only two tasks — repressing internal dissent and stealing money.

Tragically, the Islamic State carried off its horrifying attack unhindered.

On a tactical level, that meant unpreparedness and confusion. Video circulating on social media shows policemen and security guards sprinting away from the gunfire in the Crocus Hall’s lobby. It took nearly an hour for armed support to arrive, allowing the gunmen to flee the scene.

Some have claimed that as evidence the attack was a false flag operation. But far more likely the delay was caused by an operational wrangle between police, national guards and the federal security service and further complicated by the fact that Crocus is in fact outside the capital’s city limits and in the jurisdiction of Moscow Province, not Moscow itself. The car park of Crocus City Hall is just thirty seconds’ drive from the main Moscow ring road, which links with every one of Russia’s main motorways.

America Was Vigilant

Worse yet, the Kremlin was probably not paying attention to the rise if IS-K. America, however, was. On March 6, the US Embassy in Moscow issued a public security alert,” reports Mr. Matthews.

“The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts,” the notice read. “US citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings.”

Russia, Europe, and the US face a common enemy: Islamist terror.

The Crocus attack is just the latest in a long line of dozens of Islamist militant attacks on Christian targets, including:

• the Manchester Area bombing
• the Paris Bataclan shootings
• 9/11.

In the aftermath of 9/11, Putin was one of the first world leaders to call George W. Bush and offer support. Russia did not formally join Bush’s global War Against Terror — but Putin did acquiesce as the US created airbases in its backyard in Central Asia to support the coalition’s assault on the Taliban.

How Putin Will Respond

No one knows, but Mr. Matthews expects Putin will have to do something major and dramatic.

Like Hitler after the Reichstag fire of 1933, (Putin) will use the Crocus attack for his own political ends. But he is not the master of the situation. Two weeks ago in his state of the nation speech Putin seemed to be downplaying the war in Ukraine and focusing instead on the economy. In the wake of the Crocus attack he no longer has that option. Instead, he will now have to escalate in the only way his resources and limited imagination allow — by doubling down with fire and fury on Ukraine.

Where’s the Logic?

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the US of “sowing a ‘controlled chaos’ and reshaping the world order by the hands of terrorists.”

Zakharova called the US reports of IS-K involvement an “attempt by American political engineers to cover themselves and the Zelensky regime they created with the scarecrow of ISIS… “

“What is the logic, you may ask? Money and power.”

That level of delusion and conspiracy theorizing from the spokesperson of a nuclear power and UN Security Council permanent member is not only insane — it’s terrifying, writes Matthews.

And like so much of the unhinged bluster coming from the Kremlin, it’s indicative of weakness, not strength.