In response to Iran’s exertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump has instituted a blockade of Iranian commerce through the Persian Gulf. Miad Maleki, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy (a neocon outfit founded by Clifford May), has estimated the potential cost to Iran if the blockade is effective. In his estimation, Maleki finds that Iran will suffer around $435 million a day in economic damage from a blockade of its ports. He writes on X.com:
2/10 CRUDE OIL: Iran was exporting ~1.5M barrels/day, earning $139M/day at wartime pricing (~$87/barrel), though with minimal proceed repatriation due to banking sanctions. A blockade zeroes this out overnight. Kharg Island, which handles 92% of crude exports, sits deep inside…
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 12, 2026
4/10 NON-OIL EXPORTS: Iran’s non-oil trade hit $51.7B in 2025. After subtracting petrochemicals, ~$88M/day in goods (minerals, metals, etc.) flow through Persian Gulf ports. Roughly 90% would be blocked. That’s another ~$79M/day in lost revenue.
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 12, 2026
6/10 ALTERNATIVES? Iran’s options outside the Strait are negligible. Jask, the much-touted bypass, operates at a fraction of its 1M bbl/day design capacity. Only 10 of 20 storage tanks were built. Effective throughput: ~70K bbl/day. Chabahar handles just 8.5M tons/year. The five…
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 12, 2026
8/10 Extremely important topic is the storage clock: Iran has ~50-55M barrels of total onshore oil storage, roughly 60% full. Spare capacity: ~20M barrels. With 1.5M bbl/day of surplus production that normally exports, storage fills in ~13 DAYS. After that, Iran must shut in…
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 12, 2026
10/10 BOTTOM LINE: A naval blockade imposes ~$435M/day in combined economic damage. Storage fills in 13 days, forcing well shut-ins that cause permanent reservoir damage. The rial enters terminal collapse. Iran’s alternatives outside the Strait can replace less than 10% of Gulf…
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 12, 2026
