President Joe Biden walks to the Oval Office with President-elect Donald Trump, Wednesday, November 13, 2024. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)
After Donald Trump cleaned up ISIS and made preparations for the end of the war in Afghanistan (which Biden bungled badly), and put the Middle East on a path to peace via the Abraham Accords, Joe Biden oversaw the opening of two new wars (Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran), and is gifting those global conflicts to Trump as he leaves the White House. The staff of Foreign Policy magazine explains what Trump will face as he enters office, writing:
A Ukraine Endgame?
Among Trump’s first foreign-policy priorities will be addressing Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, which will hit its three-year mark just over a month into Trump’s new term. The president-elect has vowed to end the conflict before his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025. But the introduction of North Korean forces on Russia’s front lines and Ukraine receiving permission from the Biden administration to use Western-supplied long-range missile systems to strike deep inside Russian territory could make that campaign pledge difficult to achieve.
Trump has threatened to increase U.S. military aid to Kyiv or halt such assistance entirely if Putin or Zelensky, respectively, refuse to come to the negotiating table. However, he appears to be placing the onus of peace talks on Europe, not the United States—a marked shift from the outgoing Biden administration’s approach to Russia-Ukraine diplomacy.
Trump also appears more amenable to Putin’s peace talk conditions than Biden. Notably, Trump has expressed willingness to cede some occupied Ukrainian territory to Russia and has suggested that Kyiv should withdraw its NATO membership bid to end the war, something both Zelensky and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte have vehemently opposed.
Experts suggest that the recent ousting of Assad, a key Russian ally, could convince Putin to seek a greater show of force in Ukraine. Already, the Kremlin’s forces continue to advance west, battling Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Russia’s Kursk region while also bombarding Kyiv’s energy infrastructure ahead of another brutal winter. Many European nations tried to Trump-proof their Ukraine aid policies in anticipation of his election victory. Now, as the war rages on, these same nations are scrambling to curry favor with the incoming administration.
A Precarious Middle East
Trump is entering the White House amid one of the most transformative periods for the Middle East in recent history. He has promised to bring peace to the region, but he has got his work cut out for him. The historically volatile region has been consumed by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza for over a year. Though there are signs a cease-fire deal could be on the horizon, maintaining a truce could prove extremely difficult—particularly given that Israel is poised to maintain at least a temporary military presence in Gaza as part of such an agreement. And without a truce in Gaza, Trump could struggle to achieve a number of potential goals, such as normalizing ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia or securing a new nuclear agreement with Iran.
The war in Gaza has fueled tensions across the Middle East, including fomenting a conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, which have continued to trade fire despite reaching a cease-fire deal in late November. Meanwhile, Israel has also been locked in escalatory tit-for-tat exchanges with Iran, which has seen the two trade strikes on each other’s soil. But the Israeli military has dealt significant damage to Iran’s air defenses and missile program, while significantly diminishing the capabilities of Hezbollah, a powerful Iranian proxy. For now, at least, neither Iran nor Hezbollah seem eager to engage in escalation as they lick their wounds.
Iran also lost a major ally in the region with the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria. Assad’s demise poses both a challenge and a potential opportunity for Trump. Syria is in a precarious political position now that the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which the United States and other countries consider a terrorist group, is in charge. Trump will have to decide how to engage with HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who is racing to legitimize himself in the eyes of the world while moving to unite Syria behind the new government after years of devastating war.
Trump will also face the challenge of how to approach the competing interests and actions of U.S. allies such as Israel and Turkey in Syria now that Assad is gone. Israel has used Assad’s ousting as an opportunity to conduct a major campaign of airstrikes to destroy the regime’s remaining military assets, while also moving ground forces into a buffer zone inside Syria alongside the Golan Heights. These actions, which come at a vulnerable moment for Syria, have raised alarm and criticism in the international community.
Turkey, a NATO member that doesn’t always play nice with its allies, could also be a source of headaches for Trump. Ankara views U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria, which played a key role in defeating the Islamic State’s caliphate, as terrorists. If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decides to move forward with a military incursion into territory held by the Kurds, it could put Trump in an awkward position. Trump has already pointed to the big role Turkey is set to play in Syria as a key supporter of HTS. Time will tell if the president-elect will sit back and let Erdogan run the show, or if he will feel compelled to take a more direct approach.
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