Evil or stupid? Not necessarily mutually exclusive, although they certainly can happen at the same time.
Right now, bets Daniel Henninger in the WSJ, his money is on the Evil party finding its way out of the Trump-Biden dilemma. Democrats are not going to forget independents.
Put it this way: The party that nominates someone other than these two will win the decisive votes of independents, and the election. The Republicans look locked into their forget-the-independents choice. I don’t think the Democrats are.
Trump Is an Emotional Rush
Virtually every event related to the four indictments ratchets up the Republican rage meter another several points for the former president. You knew that Trump mug shot was worth millions the moment you saw it. So too U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan’s decision to plop down the Trump trial in Washington on March 4, hours before the Super Tuesday primary. Her explanation: “My primary concern here is the interest of justice and that I’ve balanced the defendant’s right to adequately prepare.” Uh-huh.
Come election time, maintains Mr. Henninger, Democrats won’t do emotion.
They’re bloodless, with eyes only on the prize. As Bill Clinton said after the 1996 election to Bob Dole who complained about unfair Clinton attack ads: “You gotta do what you gotta do.” This time, Democrats will take the advice of a Clinton who knew how to win.
Another Clyburn Moment
Ahead of the February 2020 Democratic primary in South Carolina, Rep. Jim Clyburn, reflecting the Democratic establishment consensus, pulled the plug on then-front-runner Sen. Bernie Sanders as unelectable in a general election, and endorsed Joe Biden. It was a fraud on voters that Mr. Biden was a “moderate,” but Democrats do what they gotta do.
God Help Us
The U.S. is at a political tipping point. The importance of the 2024 election goes way beyond any single personality, argues Mr. H.
The U.S. is at a political tipping point. Depending on party control of the White House, the country will go further left, as it is now, or turn back across the center-right. For nearly three years, Mr. Biden has been a figurehead president, allowing the party’s career progressives to use executive orders and administrative rulemaking to put in place their longtime policy goals and mandates on climate, labor-union practices and statistically derived social equity outcomes.
The party that wins next year could set the country’s direction for a generation. Democrats won’t let Mr. Biden’s weaknesses put their agenda at risk.
An Endorsement, not a Coronation
The eventual message to Mr. Biden will be that he has a choice: Be remembered, Biden will be told, by his party “as the most progressive president since FDR, or as an unpopular incumbent who lost to Donald Trump or was forced to resign for reasons of incapacity.”
Democrats can’t explicitly throw over Kamala Harris, but they can open their primaries to an array of Democratic governors who would evade responsibility for Mr. Biden’s economic policies: California’s Gavin Newsom, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, Colorado’s Jared Polis, Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, New Jersey’s Phil Murphy or Illinois’s J.B. Pritzker.
No Big Win, Just Win
Democrats just have to win:
… most of these governors, with the party and its donor base behind them, could pull across a winning margin of independents desiring a minimally acceptable alternative to voting for the Trump tumult. Then they would likely win again in 2028.
Virtually any of the other Republican candidates would surely defeat a Joe Biden unpopular for personal and policy reasons, reasons Mr. Henninger. What is not a mystery is who will figure this out first: the Stupid Party or the Evil Party?
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