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Senator Warren’s Electability Problem

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Prof. Elizabeth Warren and Holly Petraeus speak with servicemembers and their families at a forum in Ft. Myer.

Originally posted on August 19, 2019.

Elizabeth Warren’s strongest case for being the Democrat Party’s nominee is winning the senate seat in the most democratic state in the country – during a banner year for Democrats.

The Senator from Massachusetts is trying to deflect widespread worries that, should she get the nomination, she would be the Party’s riskiest bet to take on President Trump in 2020.

Empirical evidence indicates how bad Warren’s standing is in her home state, reports Josh Kraushaar in National Journal:

  • Job approval in Massachusetts down 49%, the 5th highest home-state disapproval rating in the Senate.
  • In Massachusetts, Warren lags behind both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
  • Warren won 60% of the votes against a no-name opponent in last year’s Senate race. (Republican Governor Charlie Baker won 67% of the vote on the same ballot.)

(I)f the economy remains healthy, will voters want to choose an alternative who threatens to abolish private health insurance, redistribute wealth, and take a hostile approach toward Israel?

According to a new Fox News poll, 60 percent of Democratic voters prefer a nominee who will restore politics to normalcy over someone who would fundamentally change how Washington works. That suggests that Warren’s message risks alienating critical parts of a winning Democratic coalition.

In a New York Times story on the subject, Warren’s campaign offered two arguments as to why she’d be a formidable challenger against Trump. Her team has pointed to her hotly contested victory against Sen. Scott Brown in 2012, which quieted skeptics who were wary of her candidacy at the time. . . .

If a candidate’s strongest case for electability is that she won a Senate seat in the most Democratic state in the country—in a banner year for the Democratic Party—then she’s got an electability problem.

The fact that Warren is still hanging onto her victory over Brown is revealing. It would be the equivalent of Republicans reveling over defeating Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama in next year’s election—a result that many GOP officials expect, given the conservative nature of the state.

Read more here.

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Debbie Young

Debbie, editor-in-chief of Richardcyoung.com, has been associate editor of Dick Young’s investment strategy reports for over three decades. When not in Key West, Debbie spends her free time researching and writing in and about Paris and Burgundy, France, cooking on her AGA Cooker, driving her Porsche Boxter S through Vermont and Maine, and practicing yoga.