November’s election could play out in an endless number of scenarios. Trying to lay them all out would be an impossible task.
Here’s a breakdown of three possible scenarios in which President Trump is reelected. The first lays out a possible minimum Electoral College win. The second a more comfortable win. The third a Trump blowout.
In the first scenario, Trump wins all the predictable red states, then picks up Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, the second districts of both Maine and Nebraska, and Pennsylvania, the state where polls are narrowest today among the remaining battleground states. That scenario leaves the President with 280 Electoral College votes to Biden’s 258.
In this scenario, the President wins all the states and districts mentioned in the Minimum Win scenario, but adds the states of Michigan and Wisconsin, which he won in 2016. In the Comfortable Win scenario, the President wins with 306 Electoral College votes, to Biden’s 232.
In the Blowout Win scenario, President Trump wins all the states and districts in the Comfortable Win scenario but adds other battleground states like Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and the rest of Maine. This scenario leaves the President with 329 Electoral College votes to Biden’s 209.