In The American Spectator, Robert Stacey McCain notes that people putting their own money on the outcome of the 2020 election are betting on Donald Trump to win. He writes (abridged):
Ever since President Trump was elected, conservatives have nervously watched the poll numbers to see whether constant attacks from Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) were damaging the president’s popularity among his core constituency. Of course, Trump has sometimes suffered from self-inflicted damage — at times, he is his own worst enemy — but never in recent history has any president faced such unrelenting opposition from the moment of his election.
Trump’s shocking 2016 upset of Hillary Clinton, which contradicted nearly every expert forecast, triggered a series of events that included the “Russiagate” investigation, the Democrats’ takeover of the House in the 2018 midterm election, and Nancy Pelosi’s impeachment proceeding against the president that culminated in his acquittal in February. As soon as that crisis ended, Trump was immediately plunged into the COVID-19 emergency, in which his leadership was questioned and the strongest suit of his reelection platform, a robust economic performance, melted down in the span of a few days. Throughout his term, the major national news media have worked hand-in-glove with Democrats to treat Trump as an enemy to democracy itself, with journalists enlisted as part of the “resistance” to the president’s alleged authoritarianism.
Trump obviously has his flaws and weaknesses as a candidate, but these are already well-known to the electorate, whereas Biden’s flaws and weaknesses have not yet been targeted in a sustained campaign. Considering that Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee have a cash advantage of $187 million over Biden and the Democratic National Committee, the GOP could at any time unleash a blitz of attack ads aimed at Biden that the Democrat could scarcely afford to answer. With such a massive edge in campaign cash, the Trump/RNC machine could afford to spend $20 million a month on campaign ads, every month between now and November, and still reach election day with more than a $50 million advantage over Biden and the DNC.
Looking at the polls in early May — Biden led the RCP average by 5.3 points as of Wednesday — Democrats might feel optimistic about their chances of beating Trump. But it’s a long way to November, and polls do not tell us everything that can be known about politics. The betting odds, which are determined by people actually wagering their own money on the election, show Trump a solid favorite to win reelection. Maybe those bettors know something the pundits don’t know, but how many people would be willing to bet on Biden’s “electability”? If the Vegas odds are right, and Trump is headed toward a decisive victory in November, we may look back in six months and realize that “Sleepy Joe” never had a chance.
Robert Stacy McCain is the author of Sex Trouble: Essays on Radical Feminism and the War Against Human Nature.
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