Nate Silver looks at Trump’s New York blowout of Ted Cruz and the road ahead to his needed 1237 delegates for a first ballot victory.
It looks as though Trump will win every New York county except for Manhattan. More importantly, it looks as though he’ll eventually get something like 90 delegates of the 95 available in New York
I’m not sure we’ve learned as much about how Trump will perform outside the Northeast. It’s been a highly regional campaign so far, and Trump will probably still need to win both Indiana and California to clinch 1,237 without uncommitted delegates. If he loses both states, we’re probably headed for a multi-ballot convention, which would be trouble for Trump. If he splits Indiana and California, Trump will be right on a knife’s edge — that’s the case where the extra two or three dozen delegates he’ll pick up in the Northeast tonight and next week could be the most helpful to him.
