David Franke was a leader in the Libertarian movement back in the 70s. I worked with David when he was the Senior Editor of the excellent Silver & Gold report. Because of David, he and I got out my first book back in the late 80’s. It was thanks largely to David Franke, and his editorial work at Phillips Publishing, that I, also in the 80’s, began writing Intelligence Report which I continue as I post this article by David. Today David is a regular contributor to The American Conservative. I am also a strong supporter of TAC. In fact Debbie and I are sponsors of TAC’s upcoming November foreign policy conclave in Washington.
“There is a real possibility of Trump winning the popular vote in November, even if by a narrow margin. There seems to be very little possibility, however, of Trump winning the vote in the Electoral College. So what if Trump wins the popular vote but Clinton wins the presidency in the Electoral College? I see that as a possible national disaster… The results of having two presidential winners—one by popular vote, the other in the Electoral College—could be scary.”
To be frank, at the time I wrote that I probably thought the probability of that scenario happening was about 20% to 30%–no certainty, but enough to deserve mention. After the results of the FBI’s “Halloween surprise” on Friday, October 28, I now think the possibility of that happening is more like 40% to 50%–almost a 1 in 2 chance.
Consider: The poll results were already tightening before this blockbuster announcement, with the promise of further tightening in the days ahead, as the undecideds and independents choose sides (in a direction probably net favorable to Trump). The mainstream media, joined at the hip to the Clinton campaign, had ignored the Clinton scandals and screamed about the orchestrated Trump “groping” scandals on a 24/7 basis. That had done some good for Clinton at the beginning, but its impact had been spent, with the pendulum moving back toward Trump. Now nobody is talking about Trump’s gropings—not even CNN or theWashington Post. They are too busy damning the FBI and making excuses for Hillary. That points to an almost complete closing of the popular vote. The results of the popular vote may not be known until midnight on November 8—or afterwards.
Not so with the Electoral College. There’s no need to go into all the math here, but the Democrats still retain an overwhelming chance of winning the Electoral College. It’s true that the Electoral College tends to follow the popular vote to some degree, but this year the divisions within the Red States and Blue States is much wider than normal. As the Washington Post reports:
“In states considered to be strongly for Trump or leaning toward him (with a total of 180 Electoral College votes), he leads Clinton by a broad 60-34 percent.”
“In blue states (with 278 electoral votes), Clinton leads 54-37 percent.” [Note: 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the presidency.]
Those are abnormally large partisan divisions. Trump would need a popular vote victory of at least 4 percent, probably more, in order to swing enough of the blue Electoral College states in his favor. And the prospects of that seem slim, even though it is now eminently possible that he can win the popular vote by 1% to 2%.
So what happens if Trump narrowly wins the popular vote and Hillary wins the Electoral College—the result I entertained (if not predicted) on October 19? The results will now be even scarier than I thought then.
The public will be able to determine both the Electoral College vote and the popular vote on November 8 or soon thereafter. But the Electoral College vote is not officially tallied until January 6, at a joint session of Congress. If Trump wins the popular vote, no matter how narrowly, and Hillary wins the Electoral College vote, all hell will break loose immediately on November 9 and for two months thereafter. Furious Trump supporters will seek to pressure electors to change their votes and thus avoid the spectre of two presidential winners—but those efforts have never worked before. I would not discount the possibility of violence in the streets, from both sides of the center lane.
The mainstream media will work overtime to defend the Electoral College as the bastion of the Republic (which no longer exists, of course) and the Constitution (which is not honored most anywhere else, of course), but the mainstream media now has credibility ratings below those for Congress (how embarrassing is that?). We knew beforehand that the media is liberal to leftist; after its unhinged performance this year for Hillary, we now know exactly how it is welded into the core structure of the Democratic Party. In effect, it is a giant Democratic Party PAC. A majority of the voting population detests the media as much as Hillary, because there are no degrees of separation, much less six.
There is no guarantee in this most surprising election cycle that we have seen the last surprise. So what could happen to change this result?
First, there is a widespread assumption, for good reason, that the Democrats have further Trump “revelations” to disclose, but they held back since they thought they were winning comfortably: Save that ammo for a rainy day. Well, that rainy day came Friday. We may still see some huge revelations about Trump in a couple of days, and we could then count on the mainstream media to forget about the FBI investigation and once again aim all its guns on Trump. I’m not sure that will work once again, but they will give it all the effort they can muster.
Second, there is the matter that Trump is probably the worst presidential candidate—purely from a standpoint of practical politics—in memory. He is always a bomb waiting to explode. His response since the FBI announcement has been on-target, but can he maintain his cool for another week? Especially if further Democrat attacks are so personal, they get under his notoriously thin skin? His past history is not reassuring.
And third, there is the possibility of still more damaging Wikileaks disclosures, or leaks about what the FBI really knows, or revelations about Clinton campaign-Clinton Foundation-White House-Justice Department-State Department-FBI collusion. And yes, I include the FBI as a full partner in the collusion. It has been an integral part of the U.S. Deep State since its founding under J. Edgar Hoover. The current machinations of Director James Comey are simply his Cover-My-Ass Strategy. Just as the CIA wants to control the global policies of both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the “conservative movement” as well as the liberals, so too the FBI wants to retain its influence no matter which side wins on November 8.
“This is the worst scandal since Watergate.” The Donald sure got that one right. Stay tuned.