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Will the Fed Hold Up Its End of the Bargain?

September 21, 2023 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Governor Jerome H. Powell discusses monetary policy accommodation, risk-taking, and spillovers during the policy panel on monetary policy spillovers and cooperation in a global economy: GP_IF_111414_1705

Looks like the Fed wants to keep interest rates higher for longer. Great. I’ll take it. But let’s not forget about some unforeseen black swan swooping in on their party, ruining their comfy projections, leading to rate cuts. Because in the real world, with live bullets flying overhead, you need to act knowing the Fed is an emotional beast. It could change course without warning. Be prepared.

Look, we don’t need to go back too far to see how the Fed gutted rates after the financial crisis and during Covid saving (temporarily?) the stock market. What will it take for them to jump ship on a new higher neutral rate? Their confidence in predicting where rates will be dozens of months from now is hubris. There’s plenty of surprises coming our way. That I know.

Which means, dear reader, I want you to focus on what you can control. You can own investments that kick off attractive yields, but I don’t like selling. It’s spinning your wheels to sell lower yielding bonds for pennies on the dollar just to get a higher yield. That’s running in place.

Is Your Family Prepared for the Next Disaster? Click Here to Survive and Thrive

If you have a diversified portfolio, you should have money coming in from all over. You have money that was invested or reinvested this year, last year, and the year before. Your income is your portfolio’s lifeblood. Spinning your wheels to get higher yields with less money isn’t investing it’s market timing.

Action Line: Don’t believe we’ve heard the last word on interest rates. The Fed is an example of a human endeavor. They’re prone to getting caught up in emotional storms. You don’t need to. When you’re ready to put emotions aside and build a plan, let’s talk.

Originally posted on Your Survival Guy. 

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E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy
E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy
E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998.

E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH, NH, where he completed course-work in Practical and Defensive Handgun, Conceal Carry Pistol, Shotguns, Precision Scope Rifle and Kidnapping Prevention.

E.J. plays a Yamaha Recording Custom drum set with Zilldjian cymbals. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West (RIP JB) and Paris.

Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com

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E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy
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