By zef art @Adobe Stock
Sarah Harmouch of War on the Rocks tells her readers how Al-Qaeda commanders are back in Afghanistan, swiftly reactivating the group’s presence. Training camps are now operational in five provinces, including Zabul and Nuristan, areas that Osama bin Laden once earmarked as crucial for al-Qaeda. She writes:
U.S. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan marked the closure of America’s longest war against the very adversary that started it. “Remember what I said about Afghanistan? I said al-Qaeda would not be there. I said it wouldn’t be there,” declared Biden, resonating with a nation eager to turn a new page. However, reality clashed with this confidence on Aug. 15 when a 17-year-old tied to al-Qaeda was arrested in Philadelphia on charges related to weapons of mass destruction. Americans must now confront a question many thought the nation had left behind: Is al-Qaeda really defeated or has the threat merely evolved?
President Biden may have announced the end of the Afghan war, but al-Qaeda has not. As of June 2023, U.N. reports indicate that the group’s activities are intensifying not just in Afghanistan, but globally as well. The group’s sustained ties with the Taliban and their leaders’ strategic return to Afghanistan are an advancement — not a decline. While top al-Qaeda figures are also calling for renewed jihad in Sudan, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb is simultaneously targeting nations like Morocco with new propaganda campaigns. Additionally, al-Qaeda’s threats against Sweden and Denmark aren’t mere talk. In the wake of Quran burnings, the group has declared, “[w]e’re still here and open for business.” The escalating Israel-Hamas conflict further fuels al-Qaeda’s resurgence, leveraging the Palestinian cause to rally support, reinvigorating its base, and staging a comeback. These developments not only reaffirm al-Qaeda’s adaptability and determination but clearly underscore that any claims of al-Qaeda’s defeat are, at this point, premature. […]
Dispelling myths of decline, al-Qaeda remains a resilient and evolving force, continually refining its methods. Cunning and resourceful, this group stands as a sophisticated global menace, deftly navigating geopolitical dynamics and circumventing counterterrorism measures. Despite these realities, some argue that al-Qaeda is yesterday’s news. Experts like Daniel Byman paint al-Qaeda as an afterthought — overshadowed by today’s latest flavor of emerging terror factions. Byman’s assessment side-steps bin Laden’s time-tested, strategic direction for the group: A “war of attrition against tyrannical superpowers.” The Mujahideen won against the Soviets, and the rise to power of an al-Qaeda friendly Taliban regime following the U.S. withdrawal only affirms bin Laden’s situational understanding. For al-Qaeda: It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
Decades of conflict have left the West weary and dismissive, but underestimating al-Qaeda’s resolve is a critical error. Wishful thinking won’t eradicate terrorism, and complacency invites it home. History’s lessons are clear: the Taliban’s rise foretold 9/11, the Islamic State’s growth unleashed international terror, and vacuums in Iraq and Afghanistan nurtured extremism. The resurgence of Hamas is a reminder that terrorism’s embers still burn, unseen but ever-present. In our battle against terror, miscalculating al-Qaeda’s threat could be our gravest oversight — for what is unseen often poses the greatest danger.
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