Is America on the Doorstep of Recession?

Nope! Over the last two and one-half years, here’s what the economic tea leaves tell us.

1. The finely tuned leading economic indicators have not declined for a single quarter, never mind the (after revision) two consecutive quarters that would signal recession.
2. The most recent quarterly leaders report was the strongest in the last year.
3. The coincident economic indicators have only declined in two individual months in the last two and one-half years. Both the last two months have recorded 0.2 upticks.

I know 0.2 does not sound like anything to cheer about. If, however, you have studied these microscopic monthly ups and downs as I have since August 1971, minute changes can feel like an explosion.

At this stage in a ten-year bull cycle, 0.2 is better than a gentleman’s C for sure.

After revision, it takes two consecutive quarterly declines to apply the label recession. As of today, we are at least 10 months away from the possibility of such labeling. With any luck, President Trump will march powerfully to reelection without the drag of recession pulling him down.

Finally, the all-important employment numbers. I will be reporting on these numbers to you each month through the 2020 reelection of President Trump and his VP (?).

For America’s “jobs president,” there has not been a single monthly decline in nonfarm payrolls in the last two-and-one-half years.

With all the China trade yap, not a single monthly decline yet. And yes, China will do everything in its power to see to it that America’s “jobs president” will not gain reelection.

Every time the Chinese open their mouths, Trump should increase tariffs on Chinese goods by a larger percentage than the last increase.