Peak Oil in America?

Dave Hammer

Yes! During my 14-year run in the institutional research and trading business in Boston, the finest analyst with whom I worked was oil analyst Dave Hammer. Since 1990 Dave has been the managing partner of Hammer Asset Management. We stay in touch to this day. Yesterday I asked Dave about my concern that shale production could soon be peaking in America.

Here’s Dave’s reply: “Bakken and Three Forks are beginning to peak. Current annual increase in production now equals the monthly increase of two years ago. Production will peak in 2020 assuming $70-$100/bbl. oil. The good thing is that the decline rate is slow. In 2060 ND shale will still be producing more than 50% of its 2020 one-million bbl./day peak.”

A map of the Bakken and Three Forks Formations within the Williston Basin of North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota Source: USGS