Richardcyoung.com

The Online Home of Author and Investor, Dick Young

  • Home
  • How We Are Different
  • About Us
    • Foundation Principles
    • Contributors
  • Investing
    • You’ve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What?
  • Your Survival Guy
  • The Great Reset
  • COVID-19
  • My Rifles
  • Dividends and Compounding
  • Your Security
  • The Swiss Way
  • Dick Young
  • Debbie Young
  • Key West
  • Paris
  • Dick’s R&B Top 100
  • Liberty & Freedom Map
  • Bank Credit & Money
  • Your Survival Guy’s Super States
  • NNT & Cholesterol
  • Work to Make Money/Invest to Save Money
  • Your Health
  • Ron Paul
  • US Treasury Yield Curve: My Favorite Investor Tool

In Defense of Pete Carroll

February 4, 2015 By Richard C. Young

Game Theory may shed some light on the startling call made by Seattle’s Pete Carroll in the stunning closing seconds of Seattle’s Super Bowl loss to the New England Patriots.

Justin Wolfers of the Peterson Institute for International Economics explains here.

Whenever I have taught economics students the idea of playing a mixed strategy, they respond incredulously, because it defies common sense to make the biggest decision of your football coaching life randomly. It may defy common sense, but it makes good strategic sense.

Perhaps you are like my students, and your advice is that maybe Carroll should follow a mixed strategy most of the time, but not in the dying seconds of the Super Bowl. But realize that if this were an optimal choice, Belichick would probably figure it out, and he would instruct his players to guard against the run. When most of the defenders focus only on stopping one running back, they usually succeed.

Or perhaps you believe that Lynch’s statistics show that he is so successful at bulldozing through opponents that he would succeed even against a defense set up only to stop the run. I disagree. A key reason that Lynch has been so successful is that his coach has been playing a mixed strategy all season. Lynch has accumulated impressive numbers in part because opposing defenses have had to be concerned about Russell Wilson’s passing. And so Lynch’s history of success when playing as part of a mixed strategy says nothing about how successful he would be if his opponents knew for sure his coach would call a running play.

Game theory points to the possibility that Carroll’s decisive call was actually the result of following the best possible strategy, and that this is a strategy that involves an element of randomness in play-calling. This leads to the intriguing possibility that if that fateful final play were to be run in a dozen parallel universes, with each coach continuing to play the same mixed strategy, the actual plays called would differ, as would their outcomes.

And so the same teams pursuing the same strategies under the same circumstances might have yielded a different Super Bowl champion.

If you’re willing to fight for Main Street America, click here to sign up for my free weekly email.

Related Posts

  • IRS: Evolution of the Defense
  • Yeti Coolers
  • Greetings from Montana
  • Author
  • Recent Posts
Richard C. Young
Richard C. Young
Richard C. Young is the editor of Young's World Money Forecast, and a contributing editor to both Richardcyoung.com and Youngresearch.com.
Richard C. Young
Latest posts by Richard C. Young (see all)
  • Get Well Soon Taki - March 21, 2023
  • A Cashless Society Is A Debacle for Americans - March 21, 2023
  • How about Hiring Erik Prince to Crush the Drug Cartels? - March 21, 2023

Dick Young’s Must Reads

  • The Worst President in American History
  • DEATH SPIRAL: Crime Soars in Democrats’ #DEFUNDTHEPOLICE Cities
  • Ron Paul: “Freedom and Central Banking Are Not Compatible”
  • Joel Salatin: Meet the Real Mr. America
  • Marry Compound Interest, Divorce Market Timing
  • A NEW CONTRACT WITH AMERICA: Rick Scott Finally Gives the GOP Something to Run On
  • Stunned Democrats Against “Defund Police”
  • How Will YOU Feel in Retirement? Let Me Explain
  • Who Is Alex Jones?
  • Paris, The Palace Hotels: Part I

Disclosure

RSS Youngresearch.com

  • Are You Fairly Wealthy? I’m Listening
  • Treasury Studying How to Increase Deposit Insurance
  • Your Survival Guy’s BEST Insider’s Guide to Key West
  • For Whom Is Your Portfolio Serving?
  • Who’s to Blame for Banking Vulnerability?
  • Mortgage Market Not Expected to Settle Down Soon
  • Are You Living Your Best Life?
  • Were Silicon Valley Bank’s Motivations for Taking Losses Pure?
  • Will the Black Swan Usher in Digital Dollars?
  • Major Rail Merger Gets Approval

RSS Yoursurvivalguy.com

  • Are You Fairly Wealthy? I’m Listening
  • How Long Is Your Water Supply Chain?
  • Your Survival Guy’s BEST Insider’s Guide to Key West
  • Be Wary of Those Who Wrap Themselves in Capes
  • For Whom Is Your Portfolio Serving?
  • ESG: Are Markets Ready for “A Needed Dose of Reality?”
  • Was Silicon Valley Bank a Victim of ESG?
  • Are You Living Your Best Life?
  • March RAGE Gauge: Will the Black Swan Usher in Digital Dollars?
  • Gretchen Whitmer Reviving Forced Unionization in Michigan

Who’d be Nuts Enough to Have Put Money into SVB?

Are You Fairly Wealthy? I’m Listening

Get Well Soon Taki

A Cashless Society Is A Debacle for Americans

How about Hiring Erik Prince to Crush the Drug Cartels?

Key West’s Best Burger

Copyright © 2023 | Terms & Conditions | About Us | Dick Young | Archives