Enumeration and “Affordability”

Francis Menton at the Manhattan Contrarian brings up an interesting point. You recognized, did you not, the central theme running through and carrying the Democrats to victory this past election? In the big races— Zohran Mamdani for Mayor in New York City, Abigail Spanberger for Governor in Virginia, and Mikie Sherrill for Governor in New Jersey. Here’s a hint. The same theme also carried two Democrats to victory as Public Service Commissioners in Georgia — the first victories by Democrats in statewide elections for state office in Georgia since 2006. Bless their little hearts, the theme was affordability.

At the Manhattan Contrarian, Mr. Menton asks, “Is the promise of affordability by these politicians something that has any prospect of being delivered through their proposed policies? Menton then asks, “Are the proposed policies more likely to be useless, or even counterproductive, thus making the promise of ‘affordability‘ a scam from the outset?”

During the campaign, affordability was applied to multiple levels of household spending: housing, healthcare, and transportation. But one category stood out as above all others: Energy.

In a piece at Vox on November 7, Umair Irfan exults at the success of the Democratic candidates’ appeal to affordability as to energy.

This off-year election was a pressure test of Democrats’ broad message on affordability and who voters hold accountable for the rising cost of electricity. . . . In New Jersey, Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, ran on a promise to fight skyrocketing energy bills. She even vowed to declare a state of emergency and freeze utility rates on day one in office. And it worked. . . . In Virginia, Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger also made affordable energy a tentpole of her campaign against republican Winsome Earle-Sears. . . . [In Georgia] Democrats Peter Hubbard and Alicia Johnson defeated two incumbent Republicans [for seats on the Public Service Commission]. . . . Frances Sawyer, founder of Pleiades Strategy, an energy analysis firm, [said] “It is just a huge sign that Georgians are fed up with rate hikes. They’re fed up with high bills. . . .”

What are the policies that will deliver affordable electricity rates? Sherrill and the Georgia PSC Commission candidates promise a freeze (or opposition to increase) of rates. Both Sherrill and Spanberger promise a big expansion of wind and solar generation.

From Sherrill’s website:

By prioritizing the right investments in new clean power resources, we can reduce our carbon footprint, increase energy independence, and help families across the state save money. . . . Prioritize and support low-cost, in-state clean energy investments and innovations to bring down rates. . . . Increase the use of state properties to host solar projects. . . . Assist New Jerseyans in adopting clean energy solutions, like community solar. . . .

Sherrill, notes the Manhattan Contrarian, appears to be clueless. Wind and solar generators require vast additional backup, energy storage, and transmission capacity to make an electricity grid work full-time. Ergo, it will result in making the costs from solar/wind generators to consumers a multiple of those for traditional thermal generation.

Ditto Spanberger’s blind spot:

From the Spanberger for Governor website:

Abigail knows that Virginia (can) be a national leader in clean energy, including by bringing high-paying clean energy jobs to the Commonwealth through investments in offshore wind, rooftop solar, and other renewable energy sources. In Congress, Abigail supported commonsense incentives for increased deployment of clean energy sources such as wind and solar, as well as electric vehicles and grid-scale energy storage. As the next Governor of Virginia, Abigail is committed to making sure Virginia can meet its energy needs while growing its economy and keeping costs low for Virginians. 

Back in New York, where Francis Menton resides, electricity costs aren’t so much on the new mayor’s agenda, although Mr. Mamdani did preach “affordability” of everything from housing to groceries to buses. Yet for New Yorkers, the question remains: How will Zohran deliver that? For housing, how about a rent freeze? For groceries and buses, subsidies from the taxpayers?

From Francis Menton:

Why anyone would ever again build or maintain a rental apartment building in New York under a regime of permanent rent freeze is an issue that apparently has never occurred to Mamdani (or the people who voted for him).

Least you’re thinking that the wails of affordability must be having all good people, especially among the ranks of Democrats, zapped to their senses, Mr. Menton wants to single out one Jack Schlossberg, who has just declared that he is running for Congress from New York’s 12th Congressional District. Jack is continuing his family’s legacy in electoral politics

Have you heard of Schlossberg? He is JFK’s grandson, via his daughter Caroline. The 12th Congressional District includes much of Midtown Manhattan, plus the Upper East and West Sides (currently represented by the execrable Jerrold Nadler, who is retiring). According to an October 2024 piece here at Yahoo Finance, New York12 is the third wealthiest district in the country (ranked by median household income), trailing only two Silicon Valley districts in California — although NY12 is second in “mean” household income, and also has more people earning $200,000+ (156,102 households out of 393,204) than either of those two pikers in California.

Schlossberg: A Man of the People 

And guess what Jack’s #1 issue is? According to Jack’s announcement, he will address the “cost of living crisis.” Oh yes, that is different than affordability, but it’s still darn close.

Schlossberg attended the Collegiate School in Manhattan for high school, where the current tuition is about $66,000 per year (probably in the range of $45,000/yr when Schlossberg attended 15 years ago). In his announcement, he emphasizes that he took the cross-town bus each day, from the Upper East Side to the Upper West Side, to get to school. In other words, “he is a true man of the people.”

Still to be addressed are the policies Schlossberg intends to enact in this crisis of living costs.

It’s well known, there are only two policies in the Democrats’ playbook to deal with such a thing:

• price controls
• taxpayer subsidies.

Mr. Menton suggests that Schlossberg start by imposing price controls on exclusive Manhattan private high schools.

Wouldn’t you think that the voters of NY12 would realize that in any effort to control the “cost of living” via government subsidies, the wealthy like them would have to pay far more in taxes than any benefit they might receive in lower prices?

Don’t count on it. The more solidly Democratic is any voting group, the more innumerate it proves to be.