What if what we know about the midterm elections turns out to be wrong? Both parties, writes Karl Rove in the WSJ, “are betting on expectations that may not pan out.” The Journal lists Rove’s conventional wisdom as something that could prove mistaken.
Fundraising
Republicans have the advantage here. Enough thinks Rove to drown Democrats in ads. But team Donald Trump began to lavishly spend on ads just a few weeks ago. “More than a few” GOP campaigns told Rove how concerned they are. Democrats aren’t sitting still, and the flurry of anti-Democrat ads doesn’t seem to be moving the votes. Rove wonders, what if many voters locked in their votes before the anti-Democrat blitz began?
Democrats Lead in Generic Ballot
In the RealClearPolitics average, it is 50.4% to 41.8%. It’s a 10-point swing away from Republicans from the 2024 presidential race’s popular vote. For the House, Rove wonders if that is too broad a measure for the races that matter most.
A Sept. 17 Cook Political Report poll says the Democratic advantage across the 37 battleground districts is 2 points—only a 7-point swing compared with Donald Trump’s performance in 2024. That could mean a smaller pickup than they expect.
Democratic Socialists of America members and their fellow travelers give Republicans juicy targets.
The DSA platform is a collection of dangerous, obnoxious, and crazy ideas. Many DSA or adjacent candidates have plenty of video confirming their out-of-the-mainstream views. But will the GOP let clips of their opponents speak for them or default to generic insults?
Trump’s Approval Rating
With 39% approval vs. 59.5% disapproval, things aren’t looking cheery.
It’s even worse on key issues—the economy (34% to 62.8%) and inflation (27.4% to 69.1%). But what if voters don’t trust Democrats either? At 38.3% approval, they’re less popular than the president.
Giant Political Megaphone Belongs to Republicans
As president, Mr. Trump can instantly command national attention with a speech, TV appearance, or even Truth Social post. But what if what he says is counterproductive? Who thinks it helped when he aired his $5,000-a-person “Trump Dividend” proposal without briefing party congressional leaders, leaving them flatfooted? What about his flip-flopping from his claim last week that “Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly” to his threat this week to “annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly”?
The “Affordability” Issue?
As Democrat candidates promise to lower prices for housing, fuel, groceries and other necessities, what if voters see these pledges as empty talk?
Republicans have strength in closing the border, keeping Americans from a record tax hike by passing the Big Beautiful Bill, and virtually ending peak wokeism by attacking DEI in all its forms. Rove wonders if voters are more concerned with problems they face now.
There is a veritable army of presidential hopefuls loading the zone in Democrat battleground races, drawing attention to themselves while attacking Republican House and Senate candidates.
But most voters aren’t in 2028 mode. What, wonders Rove, if voters don’t care about these appearances?
Republicans seemed focused on getting out low-propensity MAGA voters. Here Rove wonders, “if the GOP’s real problem is the 46% of non-MAGA Republicans who said in a Sept. 14 Fox News poll that they disapprove of the job Mr. Trump is doing as president?”
Democrats and Republicans each say they’re leading the Iowa Senate race and have polling to back them up.
The most recent Emerson College poll has GOP hopeful Ashley Hinson up 5 points, while NPR/Marist puts Democrat Josh Turek 8 ahead.
What if polling is so broken, wonders Rove, that most numbers are unreliable? There are plenty more examples of conflicting surveys.
Consensus opinion has control of the House to be decided in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. Rove wonders about New Hampshire and Minnesota. Are polls showing that Republicans could win there accurate? Or the recent Emerson survey in Kansas showing a Democrat could take that seat?
Karl Rove has his hunches about what will happen. So do we., he knows.
But what’s conventional wisdom today could look like folly six weeks from now.
Sleep tight till 3 November, all.
