Feigned Outrage vs Failure to Adapt

“You’re full of beans, and so’s your old man.” Fighting words, if there ever were. “Oh yeah? Yeah.” Thanks to the WSJ’s Kimberley Strassel for appreciating memorable scenes from the classic holiday movie, “A Christmas Story.”

Over the weekend, Ms. Strassel discussed how Republicans, looking to improve their midterm chances, are “aggressively redistricting Texas.” Why would they do that? Easy answer: To gain five U.S. House seats.

No surprise when Democrats erupted in feigned outrage, furious that Republicans might do what Democrats do, condemn “a partisan, craven, political power grab attempt by the president of the United States,” as Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey gratuitously put it.

Democrats took the dare, escalating blowback.

Democratic governors fanned out to declare they now had “no choice” but to redraw their own lines.

Kimberley Strassel, perhaps some readers are puzzled as to what Democrats think they can accomplish beyond provoking Republicans to escalate further. Care to explain?

Who Thought That Up?

As KW points out, there’s no wiggle room in a nationwide redistricting race. Dems, as she notes, already have “redistricted the dickens out of their states.” Keeping that in mind, Ms. Strassel, would you give readers some examples of their redistricting tactics?

• New Jersey, where Democrats control nine of 12 congressional seats, despite 45% of House votes going to Republicans.
• Illinois: 14 of 17 seats, though Democrats won but 53% of the vote.
• Oregon: five of six seats, despite a GOP vote of 42%.
• Healey’s Massachusetts, where Democrats control all nine congressional seats.

Whoops! Seeking the Advantage

KS: Readers would like to know more, like how effective at gerrymandering Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has been. Can you help them out here with a little math:

States with Democratic state legislative majorities currently control the lines for about 35 GOP seats—all that’s left after their aggressive maps.

By contrast, Republican state legislative majorities control the lines for 55 Democratic seats. The difference is the GOP advantage in the war Democrats have escalated. Whoops.

Getting the Wrong End of the Stick

What about the blue states that have complicated their redistricting efforts by adopting “independent” commissions? Ms. Strassel, why was that a major mistake?

Democrats recognized that mistake years ago and tried to remedy it with national legislation foisting such commissions on every state, but Congress didn’t pass it.

… Gov. Gavin Newsom has concocted a plan that requires first a supermajority of California lawmakers and then voters themselves to sideline the commission they embraced in 2008.

Ruthless Republicans

Well, Kim, there must be a few more seats out there.

(Democrats) are skilled at this and at least as ruthless as Republicans. But Democrats are in trouble if Republicans exercise their comparative advantage.

Republicans were already redrawing lines in Ohio, where they could gain two to three seats. The party (Rep) is now actively looking to redraw in Florida, Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, and New Hampshire. It may also use redistricting to shore up seats like that of retiring Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, denying Democrats pickup opportunities.

Aggressive Throw Downs

Redistricting threats and the walkout of Texas lawmakers to thwart a quorum are changing the political dynamics. You write that many street-level Republicans would rather leave the maps alone. Why?

Outrage Sells

It seems, KS writes, there is potential danger from centrist voters, not to mention legal battles.

… with the base getting worked up by the issue, the pressure is growing to act. (“Oh yeah?” “Yeah!”) In Texas, lawmakers were unenthusiastic about a map fight until President Trump made it an issue. Now they’re issuing civil arrest warrants for Democrats who fled the state.

Could the Dems, as you indicate, have a different political goal in mind?

The redistricting fight has provided the party a unifying grievance for the first time since the 2024 election. It’s as nonsensical as past Democratic claims of “Jim Crow” election reforms and “racist” filibusters, but outrage sells.

Failure to Adapt

KS, Democrats seem troubled. What else worries them?

Democratic governors leading this fight (CA’s Mr. Gavin Newsom, Illinois’s JB Pritzker) have more than the party’s well-being in mind. What better way to dominate the national discussion and position for a coming Democratic presidential primary than to act as resister in chief to the Republican redistricting threat?

Even if they fail to change maps, they still showed fight. Democratic voters are unlikely to blame them for provoking Republicans.

Interesting point you make, Ms. Strassel, that Democrats give the GOP an excuse to go nuclear in a war in which the left lacks fissile material.

In a world where both sides are willing to maneuver for base partisan advantage, political calculations by necessity must change. Consider this a good example of failure to adapt.