Updated May 6th, 2025:
Despite being initially outmatched, Ukraine’s Navy—alongside its intelligence services—has pushed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet back to its own shores, seizing the initiative in the Black Sea, according to H I Sutton of Naval News. Through innovative use of anti-ship missiles, uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), and long-range strikes, Ukraine has forced Russia to withdraw from Sevastopol and restrict operations to the eastern Black Sea. While Russia still poses a threat with cruise missiles and naval defenses, Ukraine maintains a tactical and technological edge.
Black Sea Fleet in Hiding: Russia’s Navy Confined to Harbors and Bays
Underscoring that advantage, The War Zone’s Joseph Trevithick reports that Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claims to have shot down two Russian Su-30 fighter jets using AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles launched from Magura-7 drone boats—marking the first time fighter aircraft have been downed by drone boats. GUR chief Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov called it a historic moment, though the claim remains unverified. The incident occurred near Novorossiysk, where bait tactics were used to lure the jets into range. Meanwhile, the Black Sea Fleet, still reeling from losing its flagship Moskva and several other vessels, remains largely huddled in harbors, unable to regain full combat effectiveness or project force across the region. Trevithick writes:
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) shot down two Su-30 Flanker multirole fighters with AIM-9 Sidewinder infrared-guided air-to-air missiles fired by Magura-7 drone boats, the head of the agency told The War Zone exclusively. This marks the first time fighter airecraft have been downed by drone boats and the first use of the AIM-9 from a drone boat for a kill.
“It’s a historical moment,” Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told us. […]
“1. The enemy seized the initiative in the Black Sea.
2. The Black Sea Fleet, after the loss of the flagship [ Project 1164 Slava class cruiser Moskva] and a number of ships, has still not been restored in terms of combat capability. The fleet (what remains) is huddled in harbors and bays.
3. The enemy has an overwhelming advantage in the use of unmanned boats (USVs) with the ability to attack in any part of the water area and keep the coast of the Russian Federation and the adjacent airspace under control.”
Ukraine shot the Su-30 down about 50 km (about 31 miles) west of Novorossiysk, “using the same tactics: lured it out and caught it,” Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin explained on Telegram. “The pilots ejected and were picked up by civilian sailors. Both are alive, and the plane – to hell with it. The main thing is that people are alive.” […]
In addition to using FPV drones to target the USVs, Two Majors suggested using “the long-established combination of the ZALA reconnaissance UAV and the Lancet loitering munition…Unlike the front lines, where they are hunted by interceptors and RADA radars, there is nothing like that over the Black Sea.”
The ability to shoot down fast-moving jets with AIM-9 missiles is another step forward for Ukraine’s highly innovative applications for its drone boats and one more threat for Russian aviation to be wary of.
Read more here.
Originally posted March 28th, 2024:
David Axe of Forbes reports that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet could cease to function in two years amid drone and missile strikes. Urkaine has been hitting Russia’s fleet with drone boats as well as Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles, decimating their ships in the Black Sea. He writes:
The Ukrainian missile raid on the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s anchorage in Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea, didn’t hit two Russian warships.
No, according to an update from Ukrainian authorities, the Sunday raid—involving either air-launched Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles or ground-launched Neptunes or a mix of all three—struck four Russian ships. […]
Satellite images of all four project 775 ropucha-class landing ships in Sevastopol.
Near one of the ships, a trace of an impact on the pier is visible. Another ship is being towed into the dry dock. But on the satellite images provided, no significant damage to the ships is… https://t.co/wBcb5yWhJb pic.twitter.com/ThIJI1Fwvj— Special Kherson Cat (@bayraktar_1love) March 24, 2024
At this rate, the Black Sea Fleet could cease to function in another 18 months or two years. And there’s not much the wider Russian navy can do to halt this steady degradation, as it can’t reinforce the Black Sea Fleet with large ships.
Bigger vessels that can’t move by land or river must pass through the Bosporus Strait to enter the Black Sea. Turkey controls the strait and doesn’t allow combatants to transit during wartime.
Read more here.
Turkey Straits Closed to Warships – February 2022
Since Turkey closed its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to warships in Feb 2022, Russia will not be able to resupply its fleet. Heather Mongilio of USNI News tells her readers that the decision to restrict warships, a power given to Turkey by the Montreux Convention of 1936, will likely limit Russia’s ability to move ships from its other fleets to the Black Sea. She writes:
Turkey has closed off the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to warships from any country, whether or not they border the Black Sea, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The strait closures will still allow warships through if they are returning to a home base in the Black Sea, according to reporting from Naval News. This would include Russian ships in the country’s Black Sea Fleet.
However, the decision to restrict warships, a power given to Turkey by the Montreux Convention of 1936, will likely limit Russia’s ability to move ships from its other fleets to the Black Sea.
Read more here.
