Will Moldova’s Electoral Outcome Spark Tension with Russia?

Moldovan President Maia Sandu addresses the plenary sitting of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova, March 17, 2023. Photo courtesy of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova.

Moldova’s people chose the country’s pro-European party led by President Maia Sandu to lead their government. Ted Galen Carpenter, writing at the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity, wonders if this is a new push against Russia by Western powers. He writes:

Sandu’s actions in Moldova appear to be part of a larger pattern among the EU’s dominant center and center-left governments to discredit opponents as Moscow’s tools. During Moldova’s last major surge of political turmoil in 2022-2023, the country’s constitutional court outlawed the pro-Russia, populist Shor Party. Sandu also repeatedly accused Russia of trying to orchestrate a coup during that period of disorder. Moscow’s alleged motive, then as now, was to open a new front in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine.

The underlying reality appears to be much more complex than a nefarious Russian plot to undermine a small, democratic East European neighbor. Moldova is a deeply divided country. The mere existence of the largely self-governing Transnistria confirms that there is no consensus within Moldova to become part of the EU. At best, pro-EU factions enjoy a thin majority over their pro-Russia opponents. Regardless of the outcome of the September 28 elections, such sharp domestic divisions are unlikely to ease.

Washington ought to stay out of this parochial fight. The last thing U.S. officials or the American people need is to become entangled in the internal politics of another country located in Moscow’s sphere of influence. The Trump administration’s decision to slash aid to Moldova as part of its overall effort to downsize USAID is a step in the right direction.

However, Washington also needs to spurn any EU effort to lure the United States into backing certain political factions in Moldova. The tainted electoral victory of the pro-EU presidential candidate in Romania this past July confirms that center and center-left European regimes are determined to win, even if they have to harass opponents and rig the political system to achieve the desired result. That is an ominous sign. The amount of money being poured into Moldova on behalf of favored political factions, combined with growing attempts to harass and intimidate opponents, suggests that the country may now be at the top of the EU’s agenda to be a key Potemkin democracy.

America does not have a dog in this fight. Strict neutrality is the appropriate stance.

Read more here.

If you’re willing to fight for Main Street America, click here to sign up for my free weekly email.