Russia’s long-standing strategy of using nuclear threats to intimidate foreign powers and limit Western support for Ukraine is losing its effectiveness, according to Thomas Kent of The National Interest. Despite Vladimir Putin’s latest warning about testing a nuclear-capable missile, Western leaders—including President Trump, who openly dismissed the threat—are increasingly unfazed by Moscow’s nuclear brinkmanship. Early in the war, such threats influenced US and European caution, delaying weapons deliveries to Kyiv. But now, as evidence mounts that Russia’s nuclear posturing was partly disinformation, Western governments are responding with greater resolve—imposing sanctions, increasing military aid, and expanding NATO membership despite Kremlin warnings. Putin’s intimidation tactics, once potent, now ring hollow as the West shifts focus from his rhetoric to tangible action on the battlefield. Kent writes:

For decades, the Kremlin has sought to intimidate foreign powers by threatening to use nuclear weapons. In the current Ukraine war, nuclear threats have been a key way by which Russia’s government has sought to restrain Western aid to Kyiv. The efficacy of Moscow’s nuclear brinksmanship, however, seems to be waning.

Last week, President Trump signaled he was supremely unimpressed by Vladimir Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling. Trump’s dismissal of Putin’s latest nuclear warning capped an already bad month for the Russian leader—one that involved the cancellation of a US-Russia summit in Budapest after it became clear that Putin would not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. The US leader also imposed sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies, mused publicly about sending long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, and reportedly authorized giving Ukraine new intelligence assistance to facilitate strikes on energy infrastructure deep inside Russia.

Putin responded predictably. On October 26, he issued a new version of the nuclear threats he has been making since he invaded Ukraine back in 2022. Wearing military fatigues, the Russian leader announced that his government had just tested a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable missile that could deliver a nuclear payload anywhere in the world. […]

Then, turning visibly angry, he made clear Putin’s missile talk wasn’t distracting him from demanding Russia agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. “He ought to get the war ended,” Trump snapped. “A war that should have taken one week is now in its soon fourth year. That’s what he ought to do instead of testing missiles.” […]

To be sure, Putin can be counted on to continue his nuclear rhetoric. But Western leaders seem set on making policy based on realities on the ground, rather than the Kremlin’s attempts at nuclear intimidation.

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