Iran’s leadership is reassessing long-held assumptions that President Donald Trump’s threats are mostly rhetorical, following recent US actions that suggest a greater willingness to use force. Trump’s direct strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June and the surprise capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro have undermined the belief that he will ultimately back down, reports Herb Keinon of The Jerusalem Post. As protests spread inside Iran, Trump has issued explicit warnings against violent crackdowns, which now appear more credible. Early signs suggest Tehran is exercising unusual restraint, reflecting concern that domestic unrest combined with a heightened risk of US and Israeli intervention has created a far more dangerous strategic dilemma for the regime. Keinon writes:
One question above all others must be dogging Iran’s leaders this week: Is US President Donald Trump serious?
For years, Iran’s security establishment seemed to dismiss Trump’s tough rhetoric as TACO, Trump Always Chickens Out.
This term was coined early last year by a Financial Times columnist to describe the US president’s empty tariff threats. He threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol, but it never materialized. Nor did his 100% levy on foreign films, 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals, or his $2,000-per-person tariff dividend. And that is all in the realm of economics. […]
They are mocking no longer. […]
At a press conference Saturday alongside Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made clear there was a broader message in this operation. When this president says he will act, he means it. Other countries, Rubio said, should take note.
It’s safe to assume that Iran most certainly did.
On Friday, a day before the operation in Caracas, Trump posted on Truth Social: “If Iran shots (sic) and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go.” […]
Early signs suggest that Tehran has taken notice. […]
The strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the arrest of Maduro, and now the repeated, public warnings tied to specific behavior regarding the protests form a pattern Tehran cannot ignore.
Whether this will deter a brutal crackdown on the protesters remains unclear. But what is clear is that the old TACO assumption is no longer safe, and in Tehran, that uncertainty alone must be tremendously unsettling. When Trump says he is “locked and loaded,” Iran’s leadership, at least according to some initial signs, appears now to be taking him very seriously.
Read more here.
