President Donald J. Trump addresses his remarks Tuesday, June 11, 2019, on his visit to the Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy facility in Council Bluffs, Iowa. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
Iowa was long a battleground state contested by both Republicans and Democrats, but now, it appears that Iowans have made their decision. After voting to support President Donald Trump both in 2016 and 2020, Iowans look poised to do so again in 2024. Trump leads the state by 20 points in a new poll from Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. The New York Sun reports:
President Trump holds a nearly 20-point lead ahead of President Biden in Iowa, once considered the ultimate swing state, according to a new poll from Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. Trump’s strength in the state has only expanded since being convicted on 34 felony counts, Ms. Selzer finds.
According to the poll, Trump is now winning 50 percent of the vote in the Hawkeye State, compared to Mr. Biden, who wins just 32 percent. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. takes 9 percent of the vote, and the rest of the survey respondents said they were not sure or that they would not vote.
Trump’s lead ahead of the sitting president has expanded since he became a convicted felon. In February, the Selzer poll found Trump winning 48 percent of the vote to Mr. Biden’s 33 percent.
One Trump-supporting poll respondent, Donald Share, told the Des Moines Register that the felony conviction only made him more enthusiastic to support the former president. “His convictions on these charges are part of the reason my mind is made up,” Mr. Share said. “The more they try to get him out of the picture, the stronger they make him. I, for one, believe that the charges are bogus.”
A decent share of both Trump’s and Mr. Biden’s supporters in Iowa say they could be persuaded to vote for someone else, the poll finds. In total, 24 percent of those who listed Trump as their first choice and 19 percent of those who listed Mr. Biden as their first choice say they may change their mind before November.
Mr. Biden’s popularity and job approval rating as the sitting president are surely weighing heavily on his chances in Iowa, a state that his campaign barely contested in 2020 and looks highly unlikely to invest in this year. The incumbent president has not had a net positive approval rating in the Hawkeye State since March 2021.
As of June 14, just 28 percent of Iowans approve of his job performance compared to 67 percent who disapprove. The demographic that most strenuously disapproves of Mr. Biden is a key Democratic Party constituency — young voters. Among those younger than 35, Mr. Biden’s approval rating is just 17 percent, compared to 76 percent who disapprove.
Ms. Selzer’s poll has long been considered the gold standard for not just Iowa, but for the rest of the country. She has been praised as the only pollster to consistently choose not only the correct winners, but to get their margins of victory correct as well.
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