Is Trump Unbeatable?

President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump attend the 2020 Salute to America event Saturday, July 4, 2020, on the South Lawn of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Andrea Hanks)

In The Spectator, Oliver Wiseman analyzes whether or not President Donald Trump may be unbeatable in the 2024 election. He writes:

Is Donald Trump unbeatable? That has been the big question hanging over the Republican presidential primary ever since the former president announced his candidacy last November. And, even before the first debate has taken place, it is a question to which “yes” looks like an increasingly plausible answer.

Since the early campaign got underway in earnest, the contest for the Republican nomination has been remarkably stable. Trump has held a commanding lead, Ron DeSantis has lagged behind him in a clear but distant second, failing to breakthrough as many thought he might after declaring his candidacy. Meanwhile, no one else has registered enough of a polling surge to announce themselves as a serious alternative.

Insofar as there has been any movement in the race so far, it has been in Trump’s favor. And his commanding lead is evident in a New York Times/Siena College poll published today. It finds 54 percent of Republican primary voters backing Trump, with DeSantis on 17 percent. No one else can register more than 3 percent.

In his analysis of the poll, Nate Cohn puts Trump’s commanding lead in clear terms: “In the half century of modern presidential primaries, no candidate who led his or her nearest rival by at least twenty points at this stage has ever lost a party nomination. Today, Donald J. Trump’s lead over Ron DeSantis is nearly twice as large.”

Republicans keen to move past Trump have been eager to avoid a crowded field that might pull votes away from DeSantis and allow Trump to win the nomination with a plurality. Such fears now seem woefully wide of the mark, but for all the wrong reasons: DeSantis has done little to show that he can eat into Trump’s lead, while the former president is within reach of an outright majority.

The poll will make for grim reading at DeSantis headquarters. Voters were asked to compare Trump and DeSantis on a range of attributes. Trump is seen as a stronger leader, better at getting things done, more electable and more fun. DeSantis is seen as marginally more likable (an irony given that the received wisdom identifies him as unlikable and uncharismatic) and more moral.

As worrying for the president’s opponents is the poll’s breakdown of the factions within the primary electorate. It describes 37 percent of the likely electorate as the MAGA base, Trump’s ride or die supporters, another 37 percent as “persuadable” and 25 percent as being not open to Trump. That means a single candidate must win over the anyone-but-Trump vote as well as the lion’s share of the persuadables. None of the current names have shown any suggestion they can lead that disparate coalition.

Like a studio sports analyst at halftime hoping you keep watching regardless of the one-sided score, this is the point at which I remind you it’s still early, it’s all to play for and so on. After all, a foregone conclusion of a primary is bad business for those of us who write about politics. And, in fairness to the “it’s still early” crowd, Trump’s legal problems do add real uncertainty to the process. But the simple truth is that Trump, a former president with a loyal following, is in a very strong, possibly unassailable, position. When I hear anyone arguing otherwise, it usually sounds like motivated reasoning.

But allow this Trump-skeptic to identify one silver lining: if DeSantis is disappointing those who thought he was the man to slay the Trump dragon, he is doing so quickly. In time for other Republican rising stars to reconsider their decision to sit 2024 out. Today’s poll might not prove Trump is unbeatable. But it gives us little reason to believe any of the current candidates are up to the job.

Read more here.