Oops! Somebody Flattened that ‘Blue Wave’ in Tuesday’s Special Elections

President Donald J. Trump applauds guests as he departs the Presidential Recognition Ceremony: Hard Work, Heroism and Hope on Friday, May 15, 2020, in the Rose Garden of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Andrea Hanks)

On Monday, May 11, you could feel the excited anticipation in the headline of the pro-Democrat political site, fivethirtyeight.com (the site’s name refers to the Electoral College vote, of course):

Two Special Elections On Tuesday Could

            Hint At Another Blue Wave In 2020

The introduction of the article kept up the breathless pace, with a litany of how Biden is leading Trump in the early polls, and how the administration’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is sinking Republican prospects “across the board.”  If the Democrats did well in two congressional special elections the next day, we were told, “it could signal another blue wave in the fall.

California

The contest in California’s 25th Congressional District pitted Democrat Christy Smith versus Republican Mike Garcia.  This was one of the formerly GOP suburban seats won by the Democrats in the 2018 blue wave.  The special election was precipitated by the resignation of Democratic Rep. Katie Hill after she admitted to an affair with a member of her staff.

“The contest looks close,” we were told, and “election handicappers rate it a toss-up.”  “There’s a lot at stake in the California 25th,” the site concluded.

So, what happened on Tuesday?  Not close at all:

 

Republican Mike Garcia         82,321 votes (56.0%)

Democrat Christy Smith         64,671 votes (44.0%)

That’s with 338 of 411 precincts reporting, so the final tabulation is not likely to change the outcome and Smith quickly conceded the race.

Wisconsin

The state’s 7th Congressional District in rural northern Wisconsin has voted Republican recently, and fivethirtyeight.com conceded it has become “Republican turf,” pitting GOP candidate Tom Tiffany against Democrat Tricia Zunker.  Still, the site held out hope for Democrats: “When a party consistently overperforms its usual partisan baseline in special elections, it bodes well for that party in the general election as well.  So even a narrow loss by Zunker, if paired with a comfortable Smith win, would add to the evidence that another Democratic wave is building.”

Fast-forward to Tuesday, and the results with all precincts reporting:

Republican Tom Tiffany        109,594 votes (57.2%)

Democrat Tricia Zunker         81,955 votes (42.8%)

Oops!  No “narrow loss” for Democrat Zunker in Wisconsin.

Oops!  No “comfortable win” for Democrat Christy Smith in California (instead a decisive loss).

Oops!  Cancel that “signal [for] another blue wave in the fall.”

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David Franke
David Franke was one of the founders of the conservative movement in the late 1950s and early 1960s, starting his media career at Human Events and National Review (editorial assistant to William F. Buckley Jr.). His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Esquire, and many other publications. His books have included Safe Places, The Torture Doctor, Richard C. Young’s Financial Armadillo Strategy (as co-author to Dick Young), and America’s Right Turn (with Richard A. Viguerie). He was Senior Editor of Silver & Gold Report in the 1980s, and served as the writer/editor of John Naisbitt’s Trend Letter in the 1990s. A native Texan, David now lives in Virginia’s beautiful Shenandoah Valley.