John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin, Republican strategists and partners in the national polling firm McLaughlin & Associates, predict that the tightening presidential race will rest on the 26% group of voters who have an unfavorable view of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. “These voters are split virtually evenly, with 35 percent liking Clinton, 34 percent liking Trump, and 32 percent undecided. As we have been saying this year, winning ugly will still be winning.”
Messrs. McLaughlins are not aligned with any presidential candidate or super PAC. Read more in NRO here.
Hillary’s only path to victory relies on keeping Donald Trump’s negatives higher than her own. Because voters have known her in the national political arena for 24 years, and they have a firmer, more long-term opinion of her, it will be difficult for Clinton to lower her negatives without raising Trump’s unfavorable rating. This means she will be attacking Trump early and often, just as she has in the primaries, using the media every day and airing millions of dollars’ worth of TV ads. This explains why just this week, Clinton-allied super PACs have hit the airways with negative ads attacking Donald Trump.
In the past month, however, Trump’s favorable-to-unfavorable rating has improved by 9 percent. His unfavorable rating dropped from 65 percent to 60 percent, while his favorable rating rose from 33 percent to 37 percent. Independents are unfavorable to Trump, 27 percent to 68 percent. Trump’s negatives eclipse Clinton’s negatives in her base: 83 percent of Democrats, 79 percent of African Americans, 73 percent of Hispanics, and 67 percent of women dislike him. And Trump still has his share of negatives in his own base: Among Republicans, 28 percent see him unfavorably, and 39 percent of conservatives do. Eighty percent of undecided voters for president don’t like Trump; only 9 percent do like him.