In “Risk, Order, and Power: The Saudi-Emirati Divergence,” H. A. Hellyer of War on the Rocks examines how Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are increasingly pursuing different regional strategies after years of close cooperation. The analysis argues that Riyadh favors a cautious, de-escalatory approach focused on stabilizing existing states, while Abu Dhabi has adopted a more interventionist strategy aimed at reshaping political orders in fragile regions. These contrasting risk tolerances and threat perceptions, highlighted by tensions in Yemen, underscore a growing rift with implications for Gulf security, regional power balances, and the future cohesion of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Hellyer writes:

In late December 2025, forces backed by the United Arab Emirates swept across six governorates in southern Yemen and seized oil-rich provinces along Saudi Arabia’s border. Within days, Saudi airstrikes and Saudi-backed troops erased their gains. The Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council’s territory in Yemen was reduced to practically nothing. It then quietly declared its dissolution.

This drama marked the first direct military confrontation between forces backed by the two Gulf states whose cooperation has shaped the regional security architecture for over a decade. […]

The fundamental disagreement between the two countries is about the nature of the regional order itself and where the greater risks lie: in adventurous activism or complacent de-escalation. More regional states seem to favor Riyadh’s preference for conflict containment, including Oman, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt. By contrast, the pre-emptive intervention camp is smaller, comprising the United Arab Emirates and, to a certain extent, Israel. […]

U.S. and European policymakers should acknowledge that Gulf politics are now characterized by competition between two different approaches in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, with the future of regional geopolitics being shaped by the interaction between Emirati pre-emptive activism and Saudi de-escalatory developmentalism. It is unclear which approach will prove more durable under sustained economic, security, and international pressures. Managing that reality — rather than assuming convergence — is now a central analytical and operational challenge for policymakers with sustained interests in Gulf security, energy markets, and regional stability.

Read more here.