The year 2026 will not go down in history as a calm one. Unrest and discomfort over a war in Ukraine, war in the Persian Gulf, growing stress in the American alliance system, greater cohesion among America’s opponents, and social discomfort about artificial intelligence.
Walter Russel Mead in the WSJ sets out to explain how generational politics are moving from the margins to the center of world politics. Established orders are being challenged in some of the most influential and powerful nations.
Mr. Mead shows how consequential youth movements can be.
- In 1968 youth revolts in both Western Europe and the U.S. took place whose consequences (and elderly survivors) still shape Western politics.
- The large post-World-War II generations of the West were born into unprecedented affluence and met new realities, including oral contraception, that gave them wildly different experiences and expectations from those of their war- and depression-scarred parents and grandparents.
- As these large generational cohorts reached voting age and began working, they reshaped their societies in their own image—not always, it must be said, for the better.
France has an aging population that is projected to shrink. Meanwhile, French boomers hold the keys to the treasury.
According to France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, the poverty rate for children (22.4%) is more than double that of retirees (10.4%). France’s Pensions Advisory Council reports that 24.3% of public spending in 2025 went to pensions, while the Finance Ministry puts the share of the Eduacation Ministry’s proposed 2027 budget going to pension payments at 32%.
In France, the generational gap goes far beyond age. Ethnically and culturally, young people are more likely to have Islamic or immigrant backgrounds than do older people. According to Mr. Mead, the best way to open opportunities for youth would be to slash taxes and dismantle restrictions on new housing, infrastructure, business, employment, and almost everything else strangling the French economy with red tape.
Such policies would be anathema to Frenchmen young and old, immigrant and indigenous.
President Emmanuel Macron has never recovered from the political blowback against his hesitant steps toward economic sanity early in his administration.
In 2024 the median age for French residents was 41.6 years. The median age for second-generation immigrants (with one or more immigrant parents) was estimated at around 25.
Mr. Mead continues explaining how hard it is for any government to manage the conflicts between old and young in a rapidly changing world.
When as in France you add a clash of civilizations to the conflict over resources and toss in a social consensus that is as deeply misguided as it is widely entrenched, you get a conflict that conventional politics may be unable to resolve.
