The American Conservative’s Daniel Larison details the case that Marco Rubio, under no standard measure, is the Republican front-runner. Larison is most certainly correct, as Rubio’s poll numbers at no point have come anywhere near to matching Trump’s or Carson’s. The Rubio case has been built on a thesis that Trump and Carson will fold, which may be the case. But at this point, there is no statistical evidence to support the “fold” case.
Historical precedent is clearly not on the side of either Trump or Carson. And Rubio has a resume every bit as thin a presidential resume as that of the person currently residing in the White House. And anyone paying attention to the facts knows how that has worked out for America.
Net net, there is no objectively based Republican front-runner. The race is wide open.