Source: Trump White House Archives | Flickr
… A Sematic Shift in Middle East Politics?
Donald Trump should be given credit, writes Noah Rothman in NRO. How’s that? Trump is trying to take Syria off the board for Russia and Iran and adding it to the West’s collection of assets.
On Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, President Trump gave a speech in which he revealed his intentions to provide the post–Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria “a chance at greatness.” Sanctions levied against the Assad regime in Damascus, some of which have been in place since 1979, would be removed, reports Noah Rothman in NRO.
From President Trump to delegates and business interests assembled in Riyadh.
“There is a new government that will hopefully succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace.”
Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), made an appearance in Riyadh. He also posed for a photograph alongside the president and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
You’d not be far astray from the path if you’re thinking the withdrawal of sanctions sounds like a gift to the revolutionary regime in Syria. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, President Trump, however, has desirable demands of his own:
- Sign onto the Abraham Accords with Israel.
- Tell all foreign terrorists to leave Syria.
- Deport Palestinian terrorists.
- Help the United States to prevent the resurgence of ISIS.
- Assume responsibility for ISIS detention centers in Northeast Syria.
Syria Could Become a Steward for Western Interests
- Deporting terrorist actors – the sooner the better.
- Normalizing relations with Israel and regaining military control over Syria’s ungoverned Eastern provinces will require more time, resources, and a new political covenant in Damascus.
Post-Asssad Syria is still awash in sectarian violence. Still, Sharaa’s interim government has made more than “cosmetic efforts to ingratiate itself with Syria’s minorities — including its persecuted Christians and even the Alawite sect, from which the Assad clan hailed,” continues Mr. Rothman.
(Assad’s) Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants and their Turkish sponsors have been reliably hostile toward the Iranian assets that took root in Syria under Assad’s patronage. As they sacked city after city, HTS also rolled up the Iranian networks that smuggled weapons into Lebanon for use against Israelis. Sharaa’s envoys to the West have been making all the right noises about the desirability of “a new constitution” and “free and fair elections.”
Also positive are the confidence-building measures between the U.S. and the Syrian regime, including in Damascus’s acquiescence to a U.S. demand that the regime arrest two senior members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad ahead of Republican Representative Cory Mills’s sojourn to Syria’s capital city in April. The Trump administration has every reason for optimism as evidence from the new regime’s gestures.
No surprise here, not every Republican shares Trump’s optimism.
Senator Lindsey Graham, for example, urged the president to take a slower approach to engineering a thaw in relations with the new Syria. Only Congress can fully repeal the U.S. sanctions imposed on Damascus, he added, and lawmakers won’t do that absent proof that the Syrian regime no longer sponsors terrorism.
Then there are members within the Trump administration who are skeptical of HTS (a militant group sponsored by America’s unreliable allies in Ankara and which owes its origins to a hostile takeover of the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front). They fear HTS will never be a true partner in peace.
… even if Sharaa’s regime is sincere in its overtures to the West, the whole project may still come a cropper. After all, this is still Syria we’re talking about.
Most likely, problems with post-revolutionary governance in Syria are not going away and indeed as the Economist notes are becoming “more acute.”
In Homs and in Alawite-majority coastal areas, vigilante justice persists, driven in part by Sunnis frustrated by the government’s reluctance to prosecute figures from the Assad era. Efforts to weld Syria’s myriad militias into a national army have foundered. The issuance of ID documents has stalled. Civil registries outside Idlib have not reported births, deaths, or marriages since Mr. Assad’s fall.
The government seems loath to recruit minorities, particularly Alawites, into its new security institutions. Power is held tightly by a few men in Damascus; perhaps half a dozen people are making any big decisions.
Hindering success, “religious zealots” and “hardliners” in HTS are making matters more difficult for Syria’s interim president.
The harassment of Christians and Druze continues, and there have been reports of atrocities against women alleged to have violated Islamic modesty codes. This sort of thing has reportedly led skeptics of the new regime in Trump’s orbit — figures like National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard and Counterterrorism Director Sebastian Gorka — to recommend that the U.S. keep up the pressure on Damascus.
Despite concerns, Trump’s decision to side with those in his administration who counsel tentative engagement with the Syrian regime is a praiseworthy enterprise. If it succeeds, the benefits to the United States and the West would be immense.
Long and broadly known, the former Syrian regime was an incubator and exporter of terrorism. As an Iranian vassal state, it was intent on killing American soldiers. The Assad regime, for example, trained, funded, and introduced terrorists into Iraq.
And there’s more:
- It hosted Iranian terrorist proxies as well as the Russian military and its mercenary cutouts.
- It was contemptuous of U.S.-backed proscriptions on the use of chemical weapons on the battlefield, necessitating American military intervention — an unavoidable outcome, clearly,given Barack Obama’s desperate efforts to avoid it.
- It incubated the Islamic State as a counterweight against the Western-oriented rebel groups vying to tear that regime down, going so far as to purchase its own oil from the nascent Islamist group.
Changing a Regime into a Government
No doubt, the Assad regime was an enemy of the United States. The Sharaa regime, however, could be America’s friend. Democrat reforms could evolve from a regime into a democracy.
Damascus also has its demands. If Syria is willing “to execute America’s security priorities in the region in exchange for commercial investment and cultural ties to the West,” why wouldn’t it be in America’s best interest for Washington to welcome and guide that transition?
If you’re willing to fight for Main Street America, click here to sign up for the Richardcyoung.com free weekly email.
