President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the sidelines of the BRICS summit, Vladimir Putin met with President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping. Source: Kremlin, Russia.
An Unwanted Peace
One year later, and Russia is still at it in Ukraine. In a speech last week, Vladmir Putin promised more war, before blaming the West for it.
The choice is binary, argues editors in the WSJ. “Give Ukraine the weapons to win or abandon Ukraine and live with the fallout for decades.”
Putin’s Ambitions Set in Stone
… (Putin) rolled over Ukraine’s border last Feb. 24. His humiliating failure to capture Kyiv in the war’s first days didn’t dissuade him from regrouping to attack the country’s east. Russian forces are now launching a fresh offensive and grinding down Ukrainians in Bakhmut.
The Russians have lost some 2,000 tanks, half of the operational fleet, according to estimates, and appear to be hauling old Soviet equipment out of storage. But Mr. Putin has turned to Iran for a steady supply of drones and other military equipment, and now he’s hoping that China will ship him weapons. “Significantly” more than 100,000 Russians are dead or wounded, the Pentagon says, but Mr. Putin is throwing 200,000 more into the fight, even with little training or equipment.
Mr. Putin’s goal is unchanged: Control most or all of Ukraine and incorporate it into his greater Russian empire. He still thinks he can outlast the Ukrainian government and its Western supporters. Many in the U.S. and Europe are ready to head to a negotiating table, but Mr. Putin is not. The only settlement he has in mind is Ukraine’s surrender.
… Mr. Biden is still holding back the Army tactical missile system, long-range weapons that the Ukrainians desperately want so they can strike deeper into Russian positions. The Administration is leaking that the U.S. military doesn’t have any to spare, but allied inventory estimates run in the thousands.
This has been the pattern for a year. The Biden team throws up reasons why a certain weapon—tanks, Patriot missile defenses, Himars—can’t be provided to Ukraine. The system is too complex. The training will take too long. Then these objections suddenly vanish after criticism in public and from Congress, and Ukraine gets the goods. Can we skip ahead and provide F-16 fighter jets now?
Ambivalent Action
President Biden’s speech last week hit the right note, applauds the WSJ. The speech focused on national interests rather than Wilsonian doctrine of foreign sovereignty and democracy. According to Biden, autocrats “cannot be appeased” but “must be opposed.”
Russia, Iran, China – New Axis
The stakes in Ukraine aren’t confined to Eastern Europe. Russia, Iran and China are working together—you might even call it an Axis—to dominate as much of the world as they can. If Ukraine is absorbed into a Greater Russian Co-Prosperity Sphere, the world will make accommodations to the autocrats.
The risks of backing Ukraine are real, but the risks of abandoning it are greater. The Ukrainians have put up an audacious fight but, absent more advanced U.S. arms, this story could still end with Mr. Putin a greater menace to Europe, China emboldened, and the United States weaker.
That’s not a peace to desire.
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