President Donald J. Trump, joined by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, sign the U.S. China Phase One Trade Agreement Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2020, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
At The Federalist, Sumantra Maitra explains that China’s recent aggressive behavior is a result of the country’s leaders realizing their actual place in the global hierarchy, and responding with panic. He writes (abridged):
When working as a political journalist in New Zealand, I interviewed Winston Peters, who is now the deputy prime minister. Peters is an enormously smart but politically volatile man who was a conservative in his early life, then broke off to start a new party called New Zealand First (sound familiar?), and is now in a coalition with the Labour government.
His politics was a mixed bag way ahead of his time in 2011. The most controversial of his policies was a virulent stream of anti-China rhetoric …particularly the Chinese investment and buying spree.
Last week, China started a trade war with Australia, sanctioned American senators, antagonized the British to where the Conservatives are now the most Sino-skeptic party in Europe, bullied a feckless European Union, had a stand-off with the Indian air force on the Himalayan border, and made plans to send inquisitors to Hong Kong.
Britain is hinting at a possible evacuation and relocation of British-born Hong Kong dual citizens and residents.
Chinese leaders have realized the cat is out of bag.
While that highlights China’s aggressive posture, also highlights a certain amount of panic and misunderstanding of their position in the global hierarchy. As Jack Snyder wrote in his phenomenal work, great power aggression is often a symbol of either ideological insularity and misunderstanding, or sheer imperial overestimation and delusion. In Chinese case, it might be a combination of both.
Theirs is not the conduct of a would-be superpower, much less a great power. It is the conduct of a panicked and cocooned middle power.
Sumantra Maitra is a doctoral researcher at the University of Nottingham, UK, and a senior contributor to The Federalist. His research is in great power-politics and neorealism.
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