At The American Spectator, Dominic Green notes President Trump taking the lead in polls in the must-win states of Arizona and Florida. He writes:
On August 26, I foolishly suggested in these pages that by early September, polls would show ‘Biden’s lead over Trump shrinking into the margin of error, and Trump edging ahead in a couple of swing states where he is now behind’. This, I now realize, was wrong.
By September 8, Trump and Biden were still tied on 48 percent each in Florida, according an NBC/Marist poll taken in the first week of September.
It took another week for Trump to pull ahead, and a further week for the news to break in a Washington Post/ABC poll taken between September 15 and 20 and released on September 23, Trump leads Biden in Florida by 51 percent to 47 percent.
The same poll finds Trump edging ahead of Biden, 49 percent to 48 percent, in Arizona.
Nor did Biden’s lead over Trump shrink into the margin of error in early September. Unless you believe Rasmussen’s polls. In early September, when all the other polls had Biden ahead by an average of 6 to 8 percent, Rasmussen had Biden’s lead down to 2 percent.
The Rasmussen national poll that placed Trump a point ahead of Biden, 47 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, was taken between September 9 and 15. Definitely not early September.
By Dominic Green
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